FULLY LOADED CLIPS

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

#1 SPURS VS #8 JAZZ

The Utah Jazz managed to sneak into the playoff and steal the 8 seed away from the Rockets and the Suns. For their trouble, they get the task of trying to take down a very, very, experienced Spurs team. To even play Devil’s advocate and justify the possibility of a Utah upset seems preposterous, but I’ll give them this: they play well at home. If the Jazz can protect their home court this series could stretch on longer than it should. But it won’t.

Prediction: SPURS IN 5

#2 THUNDER VS #7 MAVS

It’s tragic that this match up comes in the first round. I’d like to watch this in the Western Finals with both teams playing at the tops of their game. Instead we have a listless Mavericks team that has had a classic title hangover and hasn’t regained any of the mojo that led them to the trophy last year. While the Thunder went 8-7 in April and just lost their third best player thanks to World Peace’s elbow (love that sentence). The Mavs are running on fumes and even their owner seems to be ready to reload in the offseason. I just can’t see the Mavs finding enough scoring between Dirk and Terry to make this much of a series.

Prediction: THUNDER IN 5

#3 LAKERS VS #6 NUGGETS

I’m not really sure Denver fans know how they locked up the 6 seed. Denver is supposed to be rebuilding after jettisoning Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks. This series could turn out to be the most interesting series of the Western first round. Kobe is fighting with his shin. Bynum is fighting with his coach. And Metta World Peace is just fighting. The Lakers should win this series, but I think there’s enough turmoil and poor shooting left in Kobe and Co to take this one the full 7 games. Denver is a tough place to win, but I think Pau Gasol will be the difference and the Lakers will close the Nuggets out at Staples Center.

Prediction: LAKERS IN 7

#4 GRIZZLIES VS #5 CLIPPERS

Ugh. If you like ugly basketball, have I got a series for you! There will be fights, technical fouls, and at least one game where both teams fail to score 80 points. The Grizzlies have length and depth at seemingly every position and they will have the Clippers frustrated in every game. The good news for the Clippers is that the Grizz CANNOT score.  Last year the Grizz shocked the world with the play of Z-Bo (22 and 11 avg), so everyone anticipates a similar run this year. I think the Clippers will actually sneak up on the newly confident Memphis team. Memphis has not played a good team in its last 8 games. Their last quality opponent was a loss @ the Spurs on April 12th. So for as “hot” as everyone thinks the Grizzlies are, one should keep in mind they’ve been beating up on the likes of the Bobcats, Cavs, and Wizards for nearly a month. 

The key for the Clippers to win this series comes down to one thing: 3 point shooting. Much will be made about Blake Griffin and his free throw shooting, but the Clippers honestly shouldn’t get locked into a low post battle with Memphis. The Grizz want the Clippers to run the high pick and roll and slow the game down to a two man game. The Clippers should focus on letting CP3 penetrate and dish to the likes of Foye, Simmons, Butler, Young, and Mo Williams. Here’s an extra prediction, If Blake Griffin averages over 22 points per game in this series the Clippers will lose. Sadly, I don’t think we have the coach for this series.

Prediction: GRIZZLIES IN 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

#1 BULLS VS #8 76ERS

Rose is an MVP, but he’s an injured MVP. The 76ers make the Memphis Grizzlies look pretty. Do NOT watch this series unless you hate yourself. The series will last longer than it should. Yes, 5 games is longer than it should go.

Prediction: BULLS IN 5

#2 HEAT VS #7 KNICKS

The sexiest 1st round match up in the entire NBA playoffs. The crowd at Madison Square Garden will be insane! But then it will slowly dawn on them how overmatched the Knicks really are in this series. LeBron James is going to play like a man possessed, and this series will actually be over before it even gets started. I hate to break this to you Heat Haters, we’re going to be stuck with Miami until at least the Eastern Finals. 

Prediction: HEAT IN 4

#3 PACERS VS #6 MAGIC

I’m not really sure what the Pacers have done to achieve such positive cosmic karma, but they literally can sleepwalk through this one. I fully anticipate the Pacers to do just that. They will end up losing a game or two purely because they can’t believe how lucky they are to play the hapless Magic. The Magic are a fucking joke.

Prediction: PACERS IN 6

#4 BOSTON @ #5 HAWKS

Yes that’s the “at” symbol. Boston has the higher seed but will travel to Atlanta. This is a total shit match up for the Celtics. The Hawks are classic example of a team that can’t win the title but exists purely to make everyone’s life miserable (See also: Memphis Grizzlies). The Celtics know how to win a series like this, but it will be imperative for them to win their games at home. It would not surprise me to see the Hawks win their first two games at home and still end up losing the series. But should the Hawks go up 2-0 in the series Boston cannot afford to drop even a single game at home. The Celtics are too old to be screwing around with must win games. Even their big three probably can’t come back from down 3-0 or 3-1.

Once again the Clippers found themselves playing down to their opponents and nearly lost their opportunity for home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Clippers deserve a little slack after having their hearts’ broken earlier yesterday afternoon when Kobe and Co. came back from a 17 point deficit to lock up the 3 seed against OKC. With the Pacific Division championship and the 3 seed dream now over, the Clippers need to focus on one thing and one thing only: Winning 1 game. The Clippers head to Atlanta on Tuesday and if they can manage any sort of win, they can lock up home court in the 1st round. This is VERY important, because Memphis is continuing to win games and will most likely finish with an identical record as the Clippers. The Atlanta game becomes crucial because with only a 2 games left the Clippers have a few nagging injuries starting to creep up on them. Yesterday, Caron Butler aggravated his hip injury and Nick Young didn’t even play because of his ongoing gimpy-ness. Also, Blake Griffin picked up his 12th technical foul, meaning 1 more and he’s suspended for 1 game. Just imagine if he got a tech in the finale at Madison Square Garden. The Clippers would be without their electric big man for the first game of the playoffs. And forgive me for being so blunt, but this 1st round against Memphis is going 7 games whether they like it or not.

Self control is becoming as big a part of the end of this season as injuries have. With Ron…err…Metta World Peace elbowing OKC’s 6th man of the year, the Lakers look to be down a player for a few games if not the entire 1st round. Blake Griffin can’t afford a fate similar to this, and let’s be honest, it’s really not that difficult to not get technical fouls. 

Previewing the REAL BALLERS OF ATLANTA  on Bravo:

The Atlanta Hawks are an athletic team that can beat anyone if they get hot, but they are streaky and can go cold for long stretches. It remains to be seen if Atlanta really has anything to play for. Atlanta is going to be stuck playing the Celtics in the 1st round of the playoffs, but they look to have home court being that they beat the Celtics just last week. The Celtics do own the tiebreaker, so the Clippers are probably going to have to deal with a revved up Hawks team. The Celtics play the heat on Tuesday, so maybe the Hawks should just chill the fuck out. The Celtics haven’t even played Allen, KG, or Rondo in their last two games. 

The Clippers are going to have an awful time winning this game against the Hawks, but this really feels like Mo Williams will have his name all over it. CP3 is going to give it his all and Blake will provide good energy, but coach VDN knows he needs his role players to become scoring threats in the final two games. Look for Mo Williams to run the 2nd team while opening up a TON of 3 point attempts for Randy Foye, Bobby Simmons, and even maybe Bledsoe (god, I hope not). I don’t like the idea of a shorthanded Clippers team going into a must win game, but at least there’s a good chance the Knicks will be taking the day off on Thursday.

So here’s a quick recap of what the 3-5 seeds look like going into Monday night:

3. LAKERS (41-24)  Remaining: @ Sacramento; Predicted W-L (42-24)

4. CLIPPERS (40-24) Remaining: @ Atlanta, @ New York; Predicted W-L (41-25)

5. GRIZZLIES (39-25) Remaining:  vs Cleveland, vs Orlando; Predicted W-L (41-25)

At 7:30 pacific time, the Minnesota T-wolves will tip off against my beloved Clippers in a match up that appears to evoke feelings of the Clippers’ past. Young PG Ricky Rubio has been pared with rebounding savant Kevin Love to make one of the brightest young duos in the league. The Clippers have seen this all before when a young Shaun Livingston was pared with Elton Brand to create optimism for the LA future. Shaun’s knee cap left town and soon after, so did Elton Brand. In today’s NBA teams are not really rewarded for building through the draft. Most teams need to get lucky in the draft and then sign those big name free agents. This is the first year in the history of the Clippers that they have landed some of those big fish. 

Minnesota is a young and pretty talented team that is not nearly as bad as their recent history would suggest. The Clippers need to hold serve at home with their next two games against these Timberwolves and the Raptors on Sunday. The Clippers have made a habit of playing well at home, but coming off those big games against Dallas, the Heat, and the Lakers, I certainly hope we don’t see any lapses in effort or concentration like we did in Utah. 

The T-wolves have won 3 of their last 4 including a nail-biting loss at the Hawks. The Clips on the other hand have won 4 of 5 and need to take care of business before the road schedule bites them hard in February. Look for Vinny Del Negro to play the starters for big minutes in the first half leaning heavily on Chauncey Billups and Mo Williams. DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin will have their hands full trying to control the glass with Kevin Love setting up shop down low. This should make for a fast, physical, turnover-fest, that the Clips should have under control by the start of the 4th quarter. Make some 3s, don’t let Love dominate, and don’t get caught up in all the slop, and we should take another home W into Staples Center for Sunday at noon.